Silver Linings in Ominous Clouds

There's a lot of doom and gloom out there these days. I am not happy with a lot of what is going on, both politically and economically, and I am probably in good company. The whacky left is angry that Obama isn't "eating the rich", we on the right are unhappy that our freshmen congressmen got rolled over on the debt ceiling for a paltry $6 Billion in "cuts" (really just delayed spending increases) and the average American is furious that the economy still sucks out loud. Just today the stock market dove for the basement, wiping out the entire gains for all of 2011. Whatever you do, don't go check your 401K until you've locked all the windows and put away the sharp objects. It can be depressing, but that's not how I like to view the world. I am an optimist.

So what is there to be optimistic about? What can make me chortle contentedly as I survey this landscape? Strategy, timing and framing of the public debate.

First, let's address framing the public debate. This debt ceiling compromise was NOT any sort of "moral victory". Still, it did have an effect. Lots of people who had not given the matter much thought became educated and picked a side. Starkly few chose the side of the administration. Further, the unending, and mildly irritating, mantra from Speaker Boehner that House Republicans are, "Just one half of one third of the government," seems to be handpicked to deflect any criticism to the folks running the other 5/6th of the government. These things don't fix the big issues overnight, nor do they win elections right away, but they are a start. Think of it like "preparing the battlefield".

Next, let's tackle strategy. Clearly, the strategy of the debt deal was NOT to fix the problem. Arguably, they couldn't do that anyway what with liberals in the mix. I submit that it wasn't even to avoid a downgrade, since not even the most ambitious conservative plan proposed would have come close to that lofty goal. So then what was the point of the deal? Keeping the issue from dying. That's right ladies and gentlemen, the debt deal is going to be the zombie issue that haunts the liberals throughout the 2012 election cycle. Just like in a horror movie, anytime someone trips and falls the undead will swarm them. Notice how the blue ribbon committee is set-up for failure? Notice how the debt increases are staged so that the issue will get rehashed again before the elction? Yes, this is a strategy that the most diabolical voodoo priest could be proud of - luring your foe into a trap of his own making.

To bring it all together we need timing. In sports there are unnumerable examples of teams that start the season strong only to falter late. By the time they limp into the playoffs they are just chum in the water. Far better is to be in the position where the team is gaining strength throughout the year so that they are "peaking" at the end when it counts the most. In politics there is only one poll that matters and it will be taken on 11/6/2012. Sure, we'd like to have some big wins between now and then. But so long as we are gradually improving as we approach 11/6/2012 I will be pleased.

What of the other side, you ask? Can't the liberals use these same points in their favor? Sure, they could, but we seem to be almost divinely blessed with stupid opponents. Consider the SB5 issue for a moment. The Ohio Democrats had a huge electorate motivating issue handed to them on a silver platter when SB5 became law. Being pro-labor is still popular in Ohio and the anti-SB5 forces have tried hard to paint this really mild reform as something in between "union busting" and "calling in the Pinkertons to come git ya". Fear mongering is alive and well on the left. Despite this golden issue, buttressed by their dogmatic slogans, the Ohio Libtard Caucus scrogged the canine on timing. They foolishly elected to put the petition drive into a November 2011 vote rather than wait for November 2012. In November 2011 there is not a single legislator up for re-election who cast a vote for SB5. Nor is Governor Kasich up for re-election then. Instead, the loony left seems bent on dominating the township trustee races. Maybe they'll even finally re-capture that elusive dog warden seat. Truly, the sweat doth pour freely from my brow in anticipation of this electoral thrashing.

Electoral Politics 102 - you use emotionally charged ballot issues for one reason only, to get YOUR PEOPLE to the polls. If everyone shows up and no candidate of consequence is on the ballot, then I could almost care less. Meanwhile, the liberals will have fallen back to sleep in time for the 2012 election, unmotivated by a President who over promised and under delivered.

Add to that the simple fact that a lot more Democrat US Senators are up in 2012 than Republicans and you can see where this is going. The left is using a poor strategy with bad timing. At some point the media will decide that covering the fall and ruin of President Obama is more fun than covering up for him. When that happens, and it will (just ask Bill Clinton), the day will have been decided.

Why Politico got it Wrong

The following is a response from our Chairman Doug Deeken to a recent article from Politico

The dirty little secret is we don't NEED some super dynamo to beat Obama in 2012. In fact, someone who is careful to avoid a misstep is probably better than somebody with "Nike Breath". Obama is beating himself, our #1 priority is to get out of the way and let him lose.

The comparisons in there were all wrong. I'll go item by item:

-If we were just handing it to "the next guy in line" then it is Romney by a mile. If we do that, we lose like Dole did and we'll deserve it. I'm not going to tolerate that.

-Lots of people USED to think that 2012 was going to be a Democrat year. Up until October of last year the ORP couldn't draft a soul to run for the US Senate seat against Sherrod Brown. After November, the ORP has more senatorial-resumes on their desk than you can imagine. Things have chnaged...in our favor.

-Bush 41 didn't lose because Clinton was all that great of a campaigner. And Obama cannot hold a candle to Bill Clinton's campaign instincts. Clinton won because Bush flip-flopped on taxes, the recovery was slow and Perot was in the race. Which brings me to my next point.

-The economy is all critical. There is some unemployment number, some have said 7.3%, above which incumbents simply do not win. Regardless of whose fault it might be, the unemployed and generally downtrodden don't give breaks to powerful men looking to suck down more gravy. If the recovery is in full swing by 11/2012 then Obama might win based on that alone. If it remains slow, then almost anyone who DOESN'T SCREW IT UP (see above) can beat him.

-About being "exciting" or "energizing" or whatever - that is a matter of perspective. No mainstream media reporter is going to give any kudos to our guy, regardless of whether or not he deserves them. But there is exciting stuff going on over here. Herma Cain has real buzz; T-Paw called for ending ethanol subsidies which resounds with the Tea Party; Santorum has the social conservatives jazzed up. In the era of modern internet communication it does not matter what the priviledged "journalist elite" think of our guys. We can get the STRAIGHT SCOOP from like minded folks and decide on our own without the help of ABC/NBC/CBS/Pravda. If that makes the journalists nervous....well GOOD.

-Obama downing Guinness in Ireland is not "Presidential". Neither is his slapping Israel down. "Presidential" is touring damaged areas and sending help ASAP, which he can't be troubled to do. "Presidential" is not throwing temper tantrums based on initial reports about some limp ivy league professor's treatment by the cops. "Presidential" is applying the law fairly and evenly - not exempting your pals in the Black Panthers from prosecution and most every union from ObamaCare.

-The media will continue to be Obama's pet UNTIL they decide that the story of his fall is more interesting than the made-up story of his success. Got doubts? Ask Bill Clinton, who felt betrayed when the media jumped all over the Lewinsky story, how that works. The only question is will that point come before the election? If it does, Obama loses regardless of any other factor.

The media has a template for the GOP primary. That template is "boring". They will repeat it incessantly regardless of its veracity. Rather than try to appeal to THEIR taste of what is interesting, our guys should appeal to OUR taste of what is important. We do that and we'll put yet another nail in the coffin of the mainstream media, which is already smarting from a dwindling following.