Silver Linings in Ominous Clouds

There's a lot of doom and gloom out there these days. I am not happy with a lot of what is going on, both politically and economically, and I am probably in good company. The whacky left is angry that Obama isn't "eating the rich", we on the right are unhappy that our freshmen congressmen got rolled over on the debt ceiling for a paltry $6 Billion in "cuts" (really just delayed spending increases) and the average American is furious that the economy still sucks out loud. Just today the stock market dove for the basement, wiping out the entire gains for all of 2011. Whatever you do, don't go check your 401K until you've locked all the windows and put away the sharp objects. It can be depressing, but that's not how I like to view the world. I am an optimist.

So what is there to be optimistic about? What can make me chortle contentedly as I survey this landscape? Strategy, timing and framing of the public debate.

First, let's address framing the public debate. This debt ceiling compromise was NOT any sort of "moral victory". Still, it did have an effect. Lots of people who had not given the matter much thought became educated and picked a side. Starkly few chose the side of the administration. Further, the unending, and mildly irritating, mantra from Speaker Boehner that House Republicans are, "Just one half of one third of the government," seems to be handpicked to deflect any criticism to the folks running the other 5/6th of the government. These things don't fix the big issues overnight, nor do they win elections right away, but they are a start. Think of it like "preparing the battlefield".

Next, let's tackle strategy. Clearly, the strategy of the debt deal was NOT to fix the problem. Arguably, they couldn't do that anyway what with liberals in the mix. I submit that it wasn't even to avoid a downgrade, since not even the most ambitious conservative plan proposed would have come close to that lofty goal. So then what was the point of the deal? Keeping the issue from dying. That's right ladies and gentlemen, the debt deal is going to be the zombie issue that haunts the liberals throughout the 2012 election cycle. Just like in a horror movie, anytime someone trips and falls the undead will swarm them. Notice how the blue ribbon committee is set-up for failure? Notice how the debt increases are staged so that the issue will get rehashed again before the elction? Yes, this is a strategy that the most diabolical voodoo priest could be proud of - luring your foe into a trap of his own making.

To bring it all together we need timing. In sports there are unnumerable examples of teams that start the season strong only to falter late. By the time they limp into the playoffs they are just chum in the water. Far better is to be in the position where the team is gaining strength throughout the year so that they are "peaking" at the end when it counts the most. In politics there is only one poll that matters and it will be taken on 11/6/2012. Sure, we'd like to have some big wins between now and then. But so long as we are gradually improving as we approach 11/6/2012 I will be pleased.

What of the other side, you ask? Can't the liberals use these same points in their favor? Sure, they could, but we seem to be almost divinely blessed with stupid opponents. Consider the SB5 issue for a moment. The Ohio Democrats had a huge electorate motivating issue handed to them on a silver platter when SB5 became law. Being pro-labor is still popular in Ohio and the anti-SB5 forces have tried hard to paint this really mild reform as something in between "union busting" and "calling in the Pinkertons to come git ya". Fear mongering is alive and well on the left. Despite this golden issue, buttressed by their dogmatic slogans, the Ohio Libtard Caucus scrogged the canine on timing. They foolishly elected to put the petition drive into a November 2011 vote rather than wait for November 2012. In November 2011 there is not a single legislator up for re-election who cast a vote for SB5. Nor is Governor Kasich up for re-election then. Instead, the loony left seems bent on dominating the township trustee races. Maybe they'll even finally re-capture that elusive dog warden seat. Truly, the sweat doth pour freely from my brow in anticipation of this electoral thrashing.

Electoral Politics 102 - you use emotionally charged ballot issues for one reason only, to get YOUR PEOPLE to the polls. If everyone shows up and no candidate of consequence is on the ballot, then I could almost care less. Meanwhile, the liberals will have fallen back to sleep in time for the 2012 election, unmotivated by a President who over promised and under delivered.

Add to that the simple fact that a lot more Democrat US Senators are up in 2012 than Republicans and you can see where this is going. The left is using a poor strategy with bad timing. At some point the media will decide that covering the fall and ruin of President Obama is more fun than covering up for him. When that happens, and it will (just ask Bill Clinton), the day will have been decided.

On the Debt Ceiling

So once again liberals and conservatives are locked in mortal combat with the fate of the USA hanging in the balance. Or at least, that is what the liberal-in-chief would have you believe.

Reality check - no matter what happens between now and 8/2/11, there will NOT be a default. Ask any businessman who has ever run a startup - you can run on positive cash flow for awhile even though you are losing money overall. Some companies do it for years - we only have to do it for 17 months (when the new President gets inaugurated). Even a mediocre MBA from a sub-par school could manage that feat.

Simply put, Obama has everything to gain and nothing to lose from the so-called "debt negotiations" going on these days. He can't do any worse than the tripling of the deficit he has already managed. Heck, even his own cohorts in the Democratically controlled US Senate let out the proverbial chuckle when they saw his budget proposal. President Obama is the man most responsible for our current budgetary woes and every serious analyst knows it. All he is trying to do today is shift the blame away from himself. He'd set-up Papa Smurf as the fallguy if he could, what with the lack of taxes on those high-end "mushroom mansions" and the "three apples high" tax-loophole.

Now, he has taken to the childish tactic of "walking out" of the debt meetings in a huff. Much like a beau who is told by his fiancee that the diamond ring is not big enough, this is a blessing in disguise. Right now the Republicans have a golden opportunity to walk away from the negotiations with the VALID excuse that, "Obama doesn't want to get anything done." In the world of politics the occasion for such graceful exits comes far too rarely. Just like the jilted lover, taking the lonely walk today saves decades of hurt in the future.

Look, I'm a patriot. I want the USA to be in sound fiscal shape, no matter which party currently controls the executive branch. But the fact is that we are in anything but sound fiscal shape, and the only party that has the power to change that on its own is not interested in doing so. We conservatives will not light the nation afire to spite liberals, but we can most assuredly charge a high price on the water to put out the inferno that they start. That price is control of the government, and it is receivable 1/21/2013. America will prosper once again, whether liberals want it to or not.

Young Republicans in Washington DC

The Wayne County Young Republicans are always looking for different activities to fill a month's meeting schedule. For the June 2011 meeting we decided to hit the road and go visit Washington DC. After the last election, we once again have a friend in Congress we can drop in on!

To the left you see the Capitol Hill Club, where the DCYRs were holding a debate watching party Monday night.

Inside the Capitol Hill Club, we found the totems of Republican power prominently displayed.

(L-R) Doug Deeken, Patricia Tate, Brian Gentry, Kaalyn Tate

A few Wayne County YRs outside of the Capitol.

(L-R) Brian Boyer, Patricia Tate, Kaalyn Tate, Doug Deeken

The crew on the Capitol steps.

(L-R) back row = Doug Deeken, Brian Boyer, Brian Gentry, Brent Brown

(L-R) front row = Amy Deeken, Kaalyn Tate, Courtney Dannemiller, Patricia Tate

WCYRs outside of Congressman Bob Gibbs' office (R-OH18)

(L-R) Brian Boyer, Doug Deeken, Patricia Tate, Courtney Dannemiller, Kaalyn Tate, Brent Brown, Brian Gentry

The plaque we all worked so hard to earn.

WCYRs outside of Congressman Jim Renacci's office (R-OH16)

(L-R) Brent Brown, Brian Boyer, Courtney Dannemiller, Patricia Tate, Kaalyn Tate, Doug Deeken, Brian Gentry

The lovely ladies of the Wayne County YRs, on the mall.

(L-R) Amy Deeken, Kaalyn Tate, Courtney Dannemiller, Patricia Tate

Same great gals, same spot, viewed in the other direction.

(L-R) Patricia Tate, Courtney Dannemiller, Kaalyn Tate, Amy Deeken

We stopped here, but apparently there's nothing to see. I guess the USA really is broke.

(L-R) Amy Deeken, Courtney Dannemiller, Kaalyn Tate, Patricia Tate

The Days of Hat Tossing are Growing Short

Lots of hats have been tossed into the ring of GOP Presidential hopeful. Some have already been tossed back. The time remaining to get serious about running is drawing to a close for those as yet uncommitted.

Consider how early the primaries are. The logistics of having a campaign organization, and the financing to support it, up and running in time to make a decent showing are monumental. Especially since some of the frontrunners haven't stopped campaigning since getting trounced by a centrist-loser in 2008. You can't wait until Halloween to jump into this masquerade ball. Honestly, if a candidate is not in by the 4th of July I'll go ahead and say that they will never prevail.

There are a couple of big guns left out there with a hat in hand who could make the big toss, namely Palin and DeMint. While everyone has heard of Palin before, and almost certainly has an opinion on her either good or bad, not a lot of ink (or electrons) gets spilled about DeMint. As such, I'd like to cover why you should know about him here. Besides, Palin isn't going to run anyway. ;)

Senator DeMint (R-SC) is a fundraising machine. The work he did raising money for his compatriots in the US Senate was nothing short of Herculean. While the Stygian Stables of Capitol Hill are not yet fully cleansed, he certainly directed a river of money to some very conservative winners in 2010. One of the reasons to get into the Presidential race early is to start fundraising, but Senator DeMint has the resources and contacts all across the country to fundraise in a big way at the drop of a (Presidential) hat. While money is not everything, it certainly helps.

Still, Senator DeMint has another plus going for him - regional appeal. With the ill-fated voyage of the Gingrich campaign's 3-hour cruise, Bobby Jindal staying home, Huckabee still playing on TV and Haley Barbour bowing out that leaves an opening for a Southerner. If that Southerner also happens to be from the early primary state of South Carolina, all the better. If that Southerner were also broadly embraced by the Tea Party, better still.

In short, the days of little known candidates hoping to have a shot are over. What little time remains, less than a month by my estimation, is only open for the heavy hitters. These are the rare candidates who can quickly mobilize, and pay for, a campaign with a single news conference. The only question that remains is, "Will they or won't they?"

Why Politico got it Wrong

The following is a response from our Chairman Doug Deeken to a recent article from Politico

The dirty little secret is we don't NEED some super dynamo to beat Obama in 2012. In fact, someone who is careful to avoid a misstep is probably better than somebody with "Nike Breath". Obama is beating himself, our #1 priority is to get out of the way and let him lose.

The comparisons in there were all wrong. I'll go item by item:

-If we were just handing it to "the next guy in line" then it is Romney by a mile. If we do that, we lose like Dole did and we'll deserve it. I'm not going to tolerate that.

-Lots of people USED to think that 2012 was going to be a Democrat year. Up until October of last year the ORP couldn't draft a soul to run for the US Senate seat against Sherrod Brown. After November, the ORP has more senatorial-resumes on their desk than you can imagine. Things have chnaged...in our favor.

-Bush 41 didn't lose because Clinton was all that great of a campaigner. And Obama cannot hold a candle to Bill Clinton's campaign instincts. Clinton won because Bush flip-flopped on taxes, the recovery was slow and Perot was in the race. Which brings me to my next point.

-The economy is all critical. There is some unemployment number, some have said 7.3%, above which incumbents simply do not win. Regardless of whose fault it might be, the unemployed and generally downtrodden don't give breaks to powerful men looking to suck down more gravy. If the recovery is in full swing by 11/2012 then Obama might win based on that alone. If it remains slow, then almost anyone who DOESN'T SCREW IT UP (see above) can beat him.

-About being "exciting" or "energizing" or whatever - that is a matter of perspective. No mainstream media reporter is going to give any kudos to our guy, regardless of whether or not he deserves them. But there is exciting stuff going on over here. Herma Cain has real buzz; T-Paw called for ending ethanol subsidies which resounds with the Tea Party; Santorum has the social conservatives jazzed up. In the era of modern internet communication it does not matter what the priviledged "journalist elite" think of our guys. We can get the STRAIGHT SCOOP from like minded folks and decide on our own without the help of ABC/NBC/CBS/Pravda. If that makes the journalists nervous....well GOOD.

-Obama downing Guinness in Ireland is not "Presidential". Neither is his slapping Israel down. "Presidential" is touring damaged areas and sending help ASAP, which he can't be troubled to do. "Presidential" is not throwing temper tantrums based on initial reports about some limp ivy league professor's treatment by the cops. "Presidential" is applying the law fairly and evenly - not exempting your pals in the Black Panthers from prosecution and most every union from ObamaCare.

-The media will continue to be Obama's pet UNTIL they decide that the story of his fall is more interesting than the made-up story of his success. Got doubts? Ask Bill Clinton, who felt betrayed when the media jumped all over the Lewinsky story, how that works. The only question is will that point come before the election? If it does, Obama loses regardless of any other factor.

The media has a template for the GOP primary. That template is "boring". They will repeat it incessantly regardless of its veracity. Rather than try to appeal to THEIR taste of what is interesting, our guys should appeal to OUR taste of what is important. We do that and we'll put yet another nail in the coffin of the mainstream media, which is already smarting from a dwindling following.

A Letter from the Chairman

Dear fellow Young Republican:

It was little bit less than a year ago, in the wake of the November 2008 election, that Jim Smail, Chairman of the Wayne County Republican Party, approached me about starting a young republicans club in Wayne County. Agreeing to take on the task, the officers of the Wayne County Young Republicans have worked diligently since that time to lay the foundation for a strong and viable organization. Now formally chartered through the Ohio Federation of Young Republicans, the Wayne County Young Republicans is quickly becoming a noticeable presence within the party.

If you are interested in joining like minded individuals with a passion for politics, social concerns, and the political process, we encourage you to attend one of our upcoming events. We meet once a month in a variety of different venues around Wayne County. Our meetings and social events provide a relaxed environment where our members have the opportunity to meet people in a friendly and casual atmosphere and engage in meaningful conversation about current issues and events. Republicans, like yourself, need to be reminded there are others like you, looking to network and develop a unified local presence in Wayne County. Some of our past events include: a political roast of Nancy Pelosi at the Wooster Inn; pizza and discussion at the Grande Ranch; a back yard barbeque in Doylestown; a social event with special guest Matthew Old (Chairman of the Erie County Republican Party and the youngest county party chairman in Ohio); as well as several other exciting events.

Contrary to what you hear in the mainstream media, it's NOT a character flaw or unpopular to be young and be a Republican or a Conservative. In fact, a recent Gallup Poll reveals that an equal number of people between the age of 18 to 29 years of age self-identify as a "conservative" as the number that self-identify as a "liberal". Young Republicans not only exist, we’re just as numerous as the individuals on the liberal left wing! To counter the Democrats expansive strategy targeting young people in the greater Wayne County area, we are pleased to invite you to become a member of the Wayne County Young Republicans.

If you are interested in being part of our exciting and entertaining group, please contact us at the number listed, drop us an email, or connect with us though Facebook, Twitter, or through any of the other social networking links provided in our officers' profiles. We have also included a calendar of our upcoming events for your convenience. Look forward to seeing you at our next event!

Best regards,

Matthew A. Long,
Chairman